Newmont Cuts 2026 Gold Output Guidance as Grade Decline Hits Boddington; Barrick Reports Strong Q1 at Carlin

May 20, 2026 — Newmont Corporation issued a guidance revision on Wednesday that sent a modest ripple through gold mining equities, trimming its full-year 2026 attributable gold production forecast to approximately 5.8 million ounces from the 6.0 million ounces it had projected in February. The company attributed the reduction primarily to faster-than-anticipated ore grade decline at Boddington, its flagship open-pit mine in Western Australia and one of the largest gold producers in the Southern Hemisphere.

Boddington Grade Deterioration the Key Driver

Boddington produced approximately 168,000 ounces of gold in the first quarter of 2026, down from 201,000 ounces in the same period last year. Newmont's management noted on a brief investor call Wednesday morning that the mine is transitioning into a lower-grade zone within its current pit shell, a geological reality that was understood in broad terms but has materialized somewhat earlier and more sharply than the company's mine plan had modeled. Average realized grade at Boddington fell to 0.58 grams per tonne in Q1, compared with 0.71 grams per tonne a year earlier.

All-in sustaining costs at the operation rose to $1,412 per ounce in the quarter, up from $1,198 a year prior, as fixed costs were spread across a smaller ounce base. Newmont said it expects AISC at Boddington to remain elevated through the second half of 2026 before the mine plan transitions to a slightly higher-grade area of the pit in 2027. The company maintained its cost guidance for the full portfolio at $1,350 to $1,450 per ounce, but acknowledged the upper end of that range is now more likely given the Boddington headwind.

Boddington also produces silver and copper as byproducts. Silver output for the quarter came in at approximately 520,000 ounces, down 14 percent year-over-year, consistent with the lower gold grades given the co-located mineralization at the deposit.

Barrick Posts Stronger Quarter at Carlin Complex

Barrick Gold offered a more constructive data point on Wednesday, reporting that its Carlin complex in northeastern Nevada produced 278,000 ounces of gold in Q1 2026, ahead of the 251,000-ounce result in Q4 2025 and roughly in line with analyst consensus. The improvement was attributed to higher mill throughput and better ore blending at the Goldstrike and Cortez processing facilities following completion of a $140 million conveyor and primary crusher upgrade that came online in late January.

Barrick's Pueblo Viejo joint venture in the Dominican Republic — a 60/40 split with Newmont — produced 131,000 ounces attributable to Barrick in the quarter, slightly below guidance, as a scheduled reline of one of the two autoclaves took longer than expected. The operation is expected to return to full throughput in Q2. Barrick maintained its full-year guidance of 3.9 to 4.3 million attributable gold ounces and said it remains on track for the midpoint of that range.

Broader Supply Picture: Tightness Remains Structural

The Newmont revision adds to a growing body of evidence that global gold mine supply is plateauing after a decade of underinvestment in greenfield exploration. The World Gold Council estimates that total mined gold output reached approximately 3,661 tonnes in 2025, a record figure, but much of that growth was driven by smaller-scale artisanal and Chinese domestic production rather than major open-pit or underground expansions at Tier 1 assets.

Several analysts covering the sector have flagged that the pipeline of large, low-cost deposits likely to reach production before 2030 is thin. Notable exceptions include Seabridge Gold's KSM project in British Columbia and Glencore's Lomas Bayas expansion in Chile, but both face multi-year permitting and capital timelines. In the near term, production-side constraints are likely to remain a constructive factor for gold prices, particularly if physical demand from central banks and ETF investors continues at its current pace.

For silver, the Boddington grade decline is a minor but illustrative data point: a meaningful share of global silver supply is produced as a byproduct of gold and copper mining, meaning slowdowns at major polymetallic operations can have knock-on effects on silver availability that are not always visible in headline production figures.

Sarah Mitchell is Senior Markets Analyst at LiveMetalPrice.com. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.