Newmont Cuts Full-Year Output Guidance as Flooding Shuts Key Peru Operations
May 18, 2026 — Newmont Corporation revised its 2026 gold production guidance downward on Monday after severe flooding in southern Peru forced a temporary suspension of mining operations at its Yanacocha complex, one of the largest gold mines in South America. The company now expects to produce between 5.9 million and 6.2 million gold-equivalent ounces for the year, down from its prior forecast of 6.4 million to 6.7 million ounces — a reduction of approximately 7 percent at the midpoint.
The flooding, triggered by unusually heavy rainfall associated with an intensified La Niña weather pattern across the Andes, began in the second week of May and inundated several access roads and processing facilities at Yanacocha. Newmont said in a regulatory filing that the site's oxide leach pad — a critical component of gold recovery operations — sustained water ingress that required a full operational pause while engineers assessed structural integrity and drainage capacity. No injuries were reported.
Yanacocha's Role in Global Supply
Yanacocha, located in the Cajamarca region at elevations exceeding 4,000 metres, produced approximately 385,000 gold-equivalent ounces in 2025 and has been a cornerstone of South American gold output since its discovery in the 1990s. The mine is operated by Newmont, which holds a 51.35 percent stake, with Buenaventura holding the remainder following the buyout of Barrick Gold's interest in 2022.
While Yanacocha's output has declined significantly from its peak production years — it yielded over 3 million ounces annually in the mid-2000s — it remains material to Newmont's consolidated figures and, more importantly, to the supply profiles of gold analysts tracking Latin American production. Any unplanned disruption at large-scale operations tends to have an outsized psychological effect on spot prices, even when the actual tonnage impact is modest relative to global annual mine supply of roughly 3,700 tonnes.
Production Impact and Revised Timeline
Newmont management indicated in a brief conference call Monday morning that it expects to resume partial operations at Yanacocha within three to four weeks, contingent on weather conditions stabilizing and regulatory inspections being completed. Full restoration of the oxide leach pad throughput is expected by late July, though the company acknowledged that the lost production from the suspension period cannot be recovered within the calendar year.
The revision strips an estimated 200,000 to 250,000 ounces from Newmont's annual output, a figure that falls directly to the company's bottom line given current gold prices above $4,500 per ounce. At the spot price prevailing Monday, the lost ounces represent between $900 million and $1.125 billion in forgone revenue — a meaningful hit to a company whose full-year revenue guidance had been anchored on the original production range.
Broader Supply-Side Implications
The Yanacocha disruption is the latest in a series of supply-side setbacks that have buffered the gold market against what might otherwise have been a more significant price correction during April's risk-on equity rally. Earlier this year, a labour dispute at Kinross Gold's Paracatu mine in Brazil reduced first-quarter output by roughly 45,000 ounces, while Anglo American reported lower-than-expected production at its Mponeng operation in South Africa due to seismic activity in the deep underground sections.
The cumulative effect of these disruptions across major producers has tightened the physical supply picture at a time when central bank demand and ETF inflows remain robust. Analysts at several investment banks have noted that mine supply growth — long expected to provide a natural ceiling for gold prices — has consistently disappointed consensus forecasts for the past three years, and 2026 appears on track to extend that pattern.
Market Reaction
Gold spot prices were largely unmoved by the announcement in early Monday trading, holding near $4,540 per troy ounce. Newmont shares fell approximately 2.1 percent in pre-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange as investors digested the earnings impact of the downward revision. Silver, which has no direct exposure to the Yanacocha operations, traded sideways at $75.82 per troy ounce.
The lack of a sharp upward price reaction in gold is consistent with a market that has already priced in a degree of supply uncertainty as a persistent feature of the current environment. What the Yanacocha disruption reinforces, however, is that the path from ore body to refined ounce remains more fragile than production models typically assume — a reality that continues to support the structural case for elevated gold prices through the balance of the year.
Sarah Mitchell is Senior Markets Analyst at LiveMetalPrice.com. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.