Central Banks Add 95 Tonnes in April as Gold ETF Inflows Hit 18-Month High; Analyst Price Targets Revised to $3,500
June 1, 2026 — The World Gold Council's preliminary data for April confirmed that central banks collectively added 95 tonnes of gold to official reserves last month, the strongest single-month figure since July 2023 and well above the rolling twelve-month average of roughly 60 tonnes per month. The buying was led by Poland, which added 22 tonnes and has now increased its gold holdings by more than 160 tonnes over the past three years, as well as the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the Reserve Bank of India. China's People's Bank made no formal disclosure for April, continuing a pattern of intermittent reporting that has led analysts to assume accumulation is ongoing even in months when headline figures show no change.
The official sector demand surge arrived alongside a significant inflection in retail institutional appetite. Physically backed gold ETFs globally absorbed approximately 87 tonnes in April, the largest monthly inflow since October 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and ETF issuers. North American-listed funds accounted for roughly 52 tonnes of that total, with SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust posting their strongest back-to-back weekly inflows of the year. European-listed products, particularly those domiciled in Switzerland and Germany, added a further 28 tonnes as European investors responded to renewed currency volatility and lingering concerns about fiscal trajectories in several major eurozone economies.
Analyst Price Targets Move Higher
The combination of sustained official sector buying and recovering ETF demand has prompted a fresh round of analyst target revisions. Goldman Sachs raised its twelve-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce on Friday morning, up from a prior target of $3,200, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and a reassessment of the pace at which ETF investors are likely to re-engage following last year's outflows. JPMorgan and UBS both lifted their end-of-year targets to $3,400 and $3,450 respectively. Citigroup maintained a more conservative $3,250 target but acknowledged in its note that the balance of risks was skewed to the upside given the pace of institutional re-engagement.
The revised targets imply meaningful upside from current spot levels, which were trading near $3,290 per ounce in early Monday dealing. For investors evaluating entry points, the analyst consensus shift matters not only for its directional signal but because target upgrades from bulge-bracket institutions tend to attract additional institutional flows in the weeks following publication, as portfolio managers seek to document their rationale for increased precious metals allocations.
Gold IRA Demand Running at Double the Five-Year Average
Retirement-oriented gold demand has emerged as a quieter but structurally important pillar of the investment story in 2026. Self-directed IRA custodians and gold IRA specialists reported in May that rollover and transfer volumes for the first four months of the year were running approximately 2.1 times their five-year average. The trend reflects two converging factors: a large cohort of baby boomers converting traditional 401(k) and IRA accounts to income and capital-preservation strategies as they enter or approach retirement, and a broad reassessment of portfolio diversification following the simultaneous equity and bond drawdowns of 2022 and 2023 that undermined the traditional 60/40 model.
Industry data suggest that the average gold IRA allocation among new accounts opened in 2026 is running at roughly 12 to 15 percent of total retirement assets, up from 7 to 9 percent in 2023. For precious metals dealers and custodians, this is a substantial incremental demand pool — and one that tends to be less price-sensitive and more long-duration than speculative ETF flows, providing a stickier foundation beneath the market.
Sentiment and Positioning
The Commitment of Traders report for the week ending May 26 showed managed money net long positions in COMEX gold futures at their highest level since February, with gross longs increasing by approximately 18,000 contracts over the prior two weeks while gross shorts declined modestly. The positioning data suggests that trend-following funds have returned to the long side after reducing exposure during the April consolidation, adding a technical tailwind to the fundamental picture.
Silver's institutional positioning has improved in parallel. Open interest in COMEX silver futures rose 6.4 percent over the past month, and physically backed silver ETFs added approximately 31 million ounces in April — their strongest month since March 2024. With the gold-silver ratio still elevated near 84, silver retains relative value appeal for investors seeking leveraged exposure to a broader precious metals advance.
For investors still evaluating whether to build or add to precious metals positions, the current environment — rising central bank demand, recovering ETF flows, upward-revised analyst targets, and robust IRA rollover activity — represents a confluence of institutional signals that has historically preceded sustained price appreciation rather than foreshadowed near-term weakness.
James Crawford is Metals Correspondent at LiveMetalPrice.com. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.