Barrick Gold Cuts 2026 Output Guidance After Flooding Shuts Key Sections of Cortez Mine in Nevada
May 13, 2026 — Barrick Gold revised its full-year 2026 production guidance downward on Wednesday after sustained spring flooding forced the closure of two primary extraction zones at its Cortez complex in Lander and Eureka counties, Nevada. The company now expects to produce between 3.85 million and 4.10 million gold-equivalent ounces for the year, down from its February guidance range of 3.95 million to 4.25 million ounces. The midpoint reduction of roughly 100,000 ounces represents approximately 2.5 percent of Barrick's prior annual estimate and reflects a disruption that management described as materially larger than typical seasonal weather events at the site.
The Cortez complex, which encompasses the Pipeline and Crossroads open-pit operations as well as an underground mining zone at Cortez Hills, produced approximately 720,000 ounces of gold in 2025, making it one of the highest-output operations in Barrick's North American portfolio. The company said flooding concentrated in the northern portion of the Pipeline pit and in haul-road infrastructure serving the Crossroads zone has suspended material movement in those areas until dewatering and ground-stability assessments are complete. Cortez Hills underground operations are unaffected and continue at normal rates.
Extent of the Disruption
Nevada recorded its wettest April in more than a decade across the central and northern Basin and Range province, with several monitoring stations near the Cortez Range reporting precipitation totals more than 180 percent above the 30-year average for the month. The moisture accumulation, compounded by above-normal snowpack melt from the Toiyabe Range, overwhelmed drainage infrastructure at the open-pit operations that was designed to handle a one-in-twenty-five-year rainfall event. Barrick said the flooding event exceeded that design threshold.
Remediation work is underway, including the deployment of high-capacity submersible pumps and the reinforcement of haul roads along the northern pit wall. The company said it expects Pipeline and Crossroads operations to resume at reduced capacity within six to eight weeks, with a return to full production rates targeted for the third quarter. However, Barrick cautioned that the timeline depends on the pace of dewatering — which is influenced by ongoing precipitation forecasts — and on the results of geotechnical assessments of pit wall stability following extended water saturation. A more conservative scenario, which the company did not put into its base-case guidance, would involve delays extending into the fourth quarter.
Cost and Financial Impact
Beyond the volume reduction, Barrick said all-in sustaining costs at Cortez will rise in the near term due to remediation expenditures, reduced cost absorption from lower throughput, and the need to selectively process lower-grade stockpile material while higher-grade pit zones remain inaccessible. The company declined to quantify the incremental AISC impact pending a fuller engineering assessment but said it would provide an update at its second-quarter operational review.
At current spot gold prices near $4,700 per ounce, the lost production represents potential revenue exposure of approximately $450 million to $560 million at the midpoint of the guidance reduction — a meaningful figure but one partially offset by the record-high margin environment. Barrick's AISC at Cortez ran approximately $920 per ounce in the most recent reporting period, implying a gross margin above $3,700 per ounce on incremental production that will now be foregone. The silver lining, to the extent there is one, is that the company is losing volume at the top of the cycle rather than during a price downturn.
Broader Supply Context
The Cortez disruption arrives against a backdrop of tightening North American gold mine supply that has been building for several quarters. Newmont's Carlin operations in Nevada reported a 7 percent year-over-year output decline in the first quarter, attributing the shortfall to ore grade variability and equipment availability constraints. Kinross Gold's Fort Knox mine in Alaska has been operating at the lower end of its guidance range following a winter that complicated waste-stripping schedules. Coeur Mining reported modestly below-plan production at its Rochester silver-gold mine in Nevada due to slower-than-expected heap leach solution recovery rates.
None of these individual events is severe enough to move the needle on global gold supply in isolation — worldwide mine production runs at roughly 3,500 tonnes per year — but their accumulation in a single geography over a short period is noteworthy for investors tracking the regional supply picture. Nevada accounts for approximately 72 percent of total U.S. gold production, and the United States is the world's fourth-largest gold-producing nation.
Analyst Reaction
Several sell-side analysts reduced their near-term production estimates for Barrick following Wednesday's announcement but left longer-term models largely intact, noting that the disruption is operational rather than geological. TD Securities maintained its buy rating and $26.00 price target on Barrick shares, commenting that the market had largely anticipated some weather-related volatility given the Nevada precipitation data available from public meteorological sources. BMO Capital Markets took a more cautious view, trimming its 2026 earnings per share estimate by four cents to reflect the higher AISC and reduced ounce count, but also held its outperform rating.
The broader implication for gold prices is modest but directionally supportive. North American supply disruptions of this scale do not typically move global spot markets on their own, but they reinforce the existing narrative of constrained mine supply growth at a time when demand from central banks, ETFs, and retail buyers remains robust. Any sustained reduction in new mine supply — whether from weather, labor, or permitting delays — ultimately argues for a higher long-run equilibrium price. For investors already positioned in gold, Wednesday's guidance cut is a reminder that the supply side of the equation is not working against them.