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Neodymium Price Forecast 2027 | Predictions & Outlook
Expert analysis of neodymium price outlook for 2027 — bull, base, and bear scenarios
Current Neodymium Price
$72,000.00 / metric ton
Updated
May 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
🐂 BULL CASE
120,000
Target per metric ton
📊 BASE CASE
80,000
Target per metric ton
🐻 BEAR CASE
50,000
Target per metric ton
🐂 Bull Case: 120,000/metric ton
EV and wind turbine production accelerates dramatically, requiring more NdFeB permanent magnets. China restricts rare earth exports as a geopolitical lever (as it has done with gallium/germanium). Western supply chain development efforts fail to produce commercial volumes in time, creating a structural shortage. Bull case: $120,000/ton.
📊 Base Case: 80,000/metric ton
Neodymium demand grows steadily with EV and wind turbine production. Western supply chain development (MP Materials, Lynas) adds modest non-Chinese supply. China maintains market share but reduces export restrictions impact. Base case: $80,000/ton.
🐻 Bear Case: 50,000/metric ton
EV growth disappoints; motor design advances reduce magnet intensity. Alternative motor technologies (induction motors, ferrite magnets for lower-end EVs) gain market share. Recycling programs reduce primary demand. Bear case: $50,000/ton.
Key Price Drivers to Watch in 2027
EV production volumes and magnet demand
Offshore wind turbine installations
China rare earth export policies and quotas
Western rare earth mining and processing development
NdFeB magnet recycling programs
Motor design efficiency (reducing magnet intensity)
Alternative motor technologies adoption
Analyst Price Targets for 2027
Argus Media
$75,000/ton
Steady EV and wind demand growth; Western supply partially offsets Chinese dominance.
Roskill
$85,000/ton
Chinese export control risk premium; structural EV demand growth.
Disclaimer: Price forecasts are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Metal markets are volatile and predictions can be significantly wrong. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.