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Gallium Price Forecast 2027 | Predictions & Outlook
Expert analysis of gallium price outlook for 2027 — bull, base, and bear scenarios
Current Gallium Price
$220.00 / kg
Updated
May 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
🐂 BULL CASE
500
Target per kg
📊 BASE CASE
280
Target per kg
🐻 BEAR CASE
150
Target per kg
🐂 Bull Case: 500/kg
Gallium prices spike if China tightens export restrictions further, or if 5G infrastructure and GaN power electronics demand accelerates faster than non-Chinese supply can develop. Western semiconductor manufacturers scrambling for alternative gallium sources drive spot market prices sharply higher. Bull case: $500/kg.
📊 Base Case: 280/kg
Gallium prices stabilize at higher levels following China’s 2023 export controls. Western nations invest in gallium recovery from aluminum refining. Demand from 5G, GaN power electronics, and solar continues growing. Base case: $280/kg, above pre-2023 levels.
🐻 Bear Case: 150/kg
Western gallium production (from aluminum refining in Germany, Canada) scales up rapidly. China relaxes export controls to maintain market share. Silicon carbide continues displacing GaN in some applications. Bear case: $150/kg.
Key Price Drivers to Watch in 2027
China gallium export license policy
Western gallium production scaling (Germany, Canada, Australia)
GaN power electronics demand (5G, EV chargers, data centers)
Silicon carbide (SiC) vs GaN market share
Solar cell GaAs demand growth
Gallium recovery rates from aluminum smelting
US/EU critical minerals investment programs
Analyst Price Targets for 2027
Argus Media
$260/kg
Export controls maintain elevated prices; Western supply responds gradually.
Roskill
$300/kg
Structural demand from 5G and power electronics; supply constrained.
Disclaimer: Price forecasts are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Metal markets are volatile and predictions can be significantly wrong. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.